samedi 7 mai 2011

L'échec systémique

Encore Charles Hugh Smith d'Of Two Minds...

Y'a du Niall Ferguson dans celui là...

Failure: Don't Despair, It's The New Normal
of two minds, Charles Hugh Smith, 04/05/2011 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
→ lien
The Central State (Federal government) and the Federal Reserve are both failing institutions. Their policies, assumptions and mindsets have only one end-state: devolution and collapse. After the old institutions have imploded, some new sustainable, honorable version may arise; this is possible but not guaranteed. Nobody knows the future, and life is contingent.

Institutions are like organisms: they have a life-cycle and exist in a wider ecology. Our current institutions are in the Failing Stage of their lifecycle, where simulacra "reforms" and facsimiles of "change" are presented in lieu of true systemic refomation.

This strategy is based in the institution's politics of experience: real transformation would require their constituencies to lose some measure of income, power and perquisites, and since every fiefdom within the institution will deploy all its formidable resources to self-preservation, then real reform is rendered impossible.

The basic mechanism of this expansion and fatal resistance to reform/change is "the ratchet effect": expansions of staff, reach, power and revenues are frictionless and exciting--the cog wheel of bureaucracy advances easily. But when the institution expands beyond its carrying capacity, beyond the efficiencies reaped from advancing complexity and scale, i.e. to mission creep, bloat and sclerosis, then any reduction in staffing, reach, power and revenues are resisted with iron fortitude and the desperation of an organism fighting for its life.

I prepared this chart to illustrate the life-cycle of bureaucracy:
En bleu, la partie utile de l'Etat, le front office. En rouge, la rente et la bureaucratie...

As revenue declines and pressure for real reform mounts, the embattled institutions find that propaganda and facsimiles of reform are "cheaper" "solutions" than real reform. This is the key driver behind the flood of propaganda, bogus statistical "proof" of "recovery," and all the phony "reforms" laid out in 3,000 pages of befuddling bureaucratic self-preservation.

Real reform would mean powerful constituencies would have to take real reductions in staffing, power, benefits and in their share of the national income. Rather than reveal this double-bind--reform is impossible but the Status Quo is unsustainable--the institution deploys its gargantuan resources to laying down a smoke-screen of bogus "reforms," distracting sideshows and ginned-up statistics to "prove" that "we're really changing things around here, yes-siree, and things are getting better and better, every day and in every way."

But it's all deception and lies. Nothing has truly been changed or reformed; another layer of self-preservation has been added to an already bloated defense of perquisites and power.

America's institutions are like stars about to go super-nova. They have increased in size to the point where their mass guarantees that once their energy source (as measured in fossil fuels and money) falls below a certain threshold, the institution will collapse inward on itself.

Until then, the best that we can do is to avoid official entanglements, lower pour own cost basis, pay off debt owed to the Death Star Financial System and reduce pour dependency on the institutions which are currently expanding in the final stages before they go super-nova and implode.

And don't take it personally if things fall apart around you. We're all doing pour best, but we can't control everything around us.

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire

Si votre commentaire n'apparaît pas tout de suite, c'est normal. Il doit être validé avant publication.