|World Bank Warns of Economic Crisis in China; Only 3% Growth for Decade Says Michael Pettis|
|Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike Shedlock, 29/02/2012 (traduire en Français )|
A World Bank report to be released next week warns of an economic crisis in China unless state-run firms are scaled back. The Wall Street Journal discusses the report in New Push for Reform in ChinaAn exclusive preview of an economic report on China, prepared by the World Bank and government insiders considered to have the ear of the nation's leaders, offers a surprising prescription: China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms.
"China 2030," a report set to be released Monday by the bank and a Chinese government think tank, addresses some of China's most politically sensitive economic issues, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and reviewing it.
The report warns that China's growth is in danger of decelerating rapidly and without much warning. That is what has occurred with other highflying developing countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, once they reached a certain income level, a phenomenon that economists call the "middle-income trap." A sharp slowdown could deepen problems in the Chinese banking sector and elsewhere, the report warns, and could prompt a crisis, according to those involved with the project.
It recommends that state-owned firms be overseen by asset-management firms, say those involved in the report. It also urges China to overhaul local government finances and promote competition and entrepreneurship.
China's Difficult Transition From an Unsustainable Growth Model
Peak oil, a housing bubble, bad debts and over-reliance on investments with no genuine economic feasibility guarantee China's current boom is not sustainable. China bulls are in for a ride awakening when various bubbles pop.
On sent bien comme une tentative de la part de la banque mondiale de forcer la Chine à tout privatiser pour que les USA puissent racheter tout ça en fausse monnaie, et avec leurs fonds de retraites par capitalisation, comme ils l'ont fait avec l'Europe.
N'empêche que dans les faits, la Chine est dans la merde. Les bilans de ses banques sont des fosses à purin. La bulle immobilière y confine au grotesque. La rente publique y est surdéveloppée. Et on a tendance à l'oublier, mais les entreprises d'État non compétitives y sont presque la règle...