mercredi 17 avril 2013

Les boutiques de ventes d'or en Inde font le plein

India's Response To The Gold Sell Off: A Massive Buying Frenzy
Bloomberg via ZeroHedge, 16/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Panic, depression, rage, suicidal ideations: watching the US mainstream media, one would think that these are the prevailing sentiments among those who unlike the prevailing "developed world" speculative class, are invested most heavily in physical old - Indians, who collectively comprise the largest end-demand consumer segment for gold products. One would be very wrong.

Because while apparently it is incomprehensible to the "sophisticated" financial crowd in the US that someone may have conviction in their beliefs, and not just lunge from extreme to another, merely riding momentum and technicals like so many "professional" investors, Indians are doing precisely what a buyer should do when the price of the desired product plunges: doubling down, literally.

Bloomberg reports of the immediate aftermath to the past few days' gold plunge: "Gold buyers in India, the world’s biggest consumer, are flocking to stores to buy jewelry and coins, betting a selloff that plunged bullion to a two-year low may be overdone." Wait, so instead of jumping out off high buildings, Indians are being cool, calm and collected and... buying more? Unpossible. Do they not get CNBC in Mumbai? Apparently not: "My daughter is just six months old, but I think it is never too early to buy gold,” said Sharmila Shirodkar, a 28- year-old housewife, while displaying a new pair of earrings she bought from a store in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar. “I had been asking my husband every day if prices will go down more. I couldn’t wait anymore.”

Indeed - the buying frenzy in India has been unleashed:

While the drop in gold prompted investors worldwide to pare holdings in exchange-traded products, surging physical demand in India may help stem the 17 percent slide in prices this year. The plunge after rallying for 12 straight years may make bullion more affordable to Indians, according to Mehul Choksi, chief executive officer of Gitanjali Gems Ltd. (GITG), the nation’s biggest retailer of jewelry and diamonds by sales.

This is a perfect time to buy as prices will only go up from here,” said Vishal Mehta, a 33-year-old garment dealer, while ordering coins from Choksi V. Naginchand & Co. in Zaveri Bazaar. “I usually buy one gold coin a month, but this time I am buying two.”

Hence the true value of the word "double down". Here is another word US "investors" can learn from the Indians - value.
“It has been very hectic in the last two days,” said Deepak Tulsiani, owner of Dwarkadas Chandumal Jewellers in Mumbai as he surveyed his 11 employees, who were busy with customers. “There has been a rush to buy gold because now people are getting jewelry 15 percent cheaper than before. It’s value for their money.”

Zaveri Bazaar, the largest bullion market in the country, buzzed with customers, who were browsing through collections of bangles, bracelets, necklaces and rings displayed in trays ahead of the wedding and festival seasons. Most buyers were women in groups of two or more, accompanied by a male who paid the bills.

Whatever be the price, Indians buy gold because it is an age-old tradition,” C.P. Krishnan, a director at Geojit Comtrade Ltd., said by phone from Kochi. “It has become an unavoidable expense during weddings and festivals. With the sudden crash in prices a lot of buying is happening across India as people are thinking of it as a golden opportunity.”

Yes: tradition! That's what the Chairman said too. And the chairman is never wrong. Even when he is selling the synthetic paper representation of that tradition and in the process allowing all those who trade on "value" and not "moment" to average down in terms of infinitely dilutible fiat paper.

Back to India:
“Some customers are still scared to buy now as they feel the price will go down more,” Chetan Ranka, owner of Choksi V. Naginchand, said after answering a call from a prospective customer on one of the four phones at his desk. “I have received more than 250 calls on Monday inquiring about the prices. Normally I get maybe 50 calls a day.”

The lower gold drops, the more people will buy.
“I had been keeping a tab on gold prices daily by reading the newspapers,” Sakshi Jain, a 39-year-old housewife, said as she held an intricately designed necklace against her neck in front of a mirror in Zaveri Bazaar. “I had some wedding purchases to make and as soon as prices dropped I came to buy.”

Voilà par exemple une émission indienne du 14 avril. Je comprends pas grand chose, mais à voir leurs têtes, c'est marrant de voir comment tout le monde se réjouit de la baisse des cours, la question pour eux n'étant pas le cours, mais combien ils peuvent en acheter   

Les importations en Inde avaient chuté à cause de la hausse des cours, et visiblement, j'ai l'impression que ça pesait sur le moral des gens. Ils avaient l'impression de se serrer la ceinture, pas de s'enrichir. L'or a vraiment une place particulière dans cette société.

En tous cas, quand on cherche India gold dans youtube, rien que sur la dernière semaine, on trouve des tas d'émissions télé sur le sujet...

The WilliamBanzai7 Blog, 17/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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A voir aussi, surtout pour la contrainte sur la balance courante que les importations d'or engendrent, empêchant la banque centrale de baisser les taux, et d'imposer son PQ à jus de dette comme monnaie crédible, alors que les indiens refusent obstinément d'épargner dans le système bancaire...
India's gold import to fall by 25% in April
CNBC, 16/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Gold imports are likely to go down by about 25 percent this month to around 53.25 tonnes compared to the same period last year due to the declining gold prices, a bullion trade body today said.

When the price stabilises, which is likely to be in a few days, imports of the precious metals will again pick up, he said.

India imported about 250 tonnes in the first quarter of this year amid decline in international prices and rise in demand. The country had imported 207 tonnes of gold in January-March 2012.

India's gold imports had dipped by 12 percent in 2012, to 864.2 tonnes compared to 986.3 tonnes in 2011, mainly on account of jewellers' strike over certain budgetary measures and sharp rise in domestic price, according to the World Gold Council Demand Trends Report.

Gold's Plunge Is Happy News for India's Brides and Economists
Business Week, 16/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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The stunning fall in gold prices couldn’t come at a better time for Indian consumers. It’s wedding season in India, the world’s biggest buyer of gold, and this is a traditional time for people to give gold to brides or to wedding guests.

Consumers aren’t the only people in India happy to see a bear market for gold. The country’s economic gurus, too, are no doubt relieved by the 19 percent fall in gold prices since the beginning of 2013. The high cost of gold has been a significant burden for the already struggling Indian economy. Economists and ratings agencies, for instance, have been worried about India’s current account deficit, which hit a record in the last quarter of 2012 of $32.6 billion, or 6.7 percent of gross domestic product. Gold imports account for about 3 percent of GDP, Chief Economic Advisor Raghuram Rajan said in an interview in March.

India Gains as Gold Plunge Boosts Scope for Rate Cuts: Economy
Bloomberg, Kartik Goyal, 17/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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The gold rout may narrow India’s record current-account deficit, easing pressure on the rupee, damping inflation and boosting scope for a further reduction in interest rates.

Gold purchases account for more than two-thirds of the deficit, which reached $32.6 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 31, according to the Reserve Bank of India. The metal’s about 18 percent plunge in 2013 could help cut import costs by almost $7 billion in the 12 months ending March 2014, Barclays Plc said.

India’s finance minister is visiting North America to woo investors as a slide in foreign direct investment increases reliance on more volatile stock and bond inflows to fund the trade imbalance. The shortfall, along with price pressures, has restricted the central bank to a 50 basis-point rate reduction this year even with economic expansion at a decade low.

“The recent fall in commodity prices, including gold, has come as manna from heaven for the Indian economy,” said Sonal Varma, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Mumbai. “If the trend is sustained and reduces the current-account deficit and inflation, that will give the Reserve Bank more breathing space on easing policy.”

The rupee appreciated 0.9 percent, the most in three months, to 54.145 per dollar in Mumbai yesterday on optimism falling oil and gold costs will trim the deficit. The currency’s climb pared its loss in the past 12 months to 4.9 percent.

2 commentaires:

  1. Au regard des sujets qui reviennent inlassablement, comme celui de "l'obsédante" question des placements en valeurs dites de refuge, dont manifestement l'OR, je me demande si le blog "Les Infos du Nain" ne puisse pas être un néo-Liesi.
    Si on analyse les autres sujets et leur présentation, sur l'immigration, sur certaines obédiences ou confessions, ça me fait penser à ces gens dits de gôche qui vous dictent la morale et qui ne sont animés en secret que par l'obsession des placements divers et variés, en place et lieu à ceux , plus locaux, susceptibles de nous extirper du pétrin collectif dans lequel nous sommes. Des démarches d'actionnariat comme "Hemen-Herrikoa" exclusivement dédiées à la création d'emplois et de plus-values locales. Aux uns de ronger leur petit nonos en or, aux autres d'avancer concrètement vers un autre système.

  2. D'après le dernier GEAB, cette baisse de l'or est un contrecoup des derniers (mauvais chiffres de l'économie chinoise).
    Moins de croissance = panne des clients occidentaux = détente sur les matières premières et l'énergie = obligation par les banques de shorter leur or papier pour se procurer des liquidités = baisse des cours.

    Ils ont raison, les Indiens : c'est le moment de faire son marché.


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