|Tech Talk - Shell Looks to the Future|
|The Oil Drum, 08/04/2013 (traduire en Français )|
Shell postulates two different scenarios for the future. There is the Mountain scenario, where business continues very much as usual, and then there is an Oceans scenario where the ”powers that are” work toward a more accommodative approach to those in the developing world, and to the less fortunate layers of society.
The document begins with the impact if the Mountain scenario is to prevail, driven through a top down control, largely through existing institutions. Shell is not enamoured of this:
In the US, for example, income and wealth inequality continue to increase, with stagnating middle-class earnings, reduced social mobility, and an allegedly meritocratic higher education system, generously supported by tax exemptions, whose main beneficiaries are the children of the successful. Superimposed on this class divide is an increasingly serious intergenerational divide, as commitments to the elderly via entitlement programmes crowd out discretionary expenditures that could rebuild economic and social infrastructure. Similarly, in Europe an ageing population and commitments to high levels of entitlement, which are frequently underfunded, create a mixture of social and political strains that deflect attention from the core structural economic issues facing the region.
Figure 1. Shell projection of future energy supply, through 2060 under the Mountain scenario.
A prendre pour ce que ça vaut... C'est de la prospective... En tout cas, pas de peak selon eux. Un peak oil certes, mais compensé par d'autres sources d'énergie primaire, gaz, solaire et nucléaire surtout...