mercredi 1 mai 2013

Etats-Unis : retour de l'économie fictive de bulle immobilière ?

Le Case Shiller d'hier :
Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000
Calculated Risk, 30/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Les prix en nominal :


Ajustés de l'inflation officielle :


Et le ratio achat/location :



Et comme le note Mish, on commence à revoir des comportements des pires moments de la bulle :
Here We Go Again - Builders Hold Lotteries for Right to Buy a House
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike Shedlock, 30/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Here's that "froth" thing again: Builders hold lotteries for eager new homebuyers.
O'Brien Homes started holding a monthly housing lottery for its 228-unit development called Fusion in Sunnyvale, Calf., after seeing throngs of prospective buyers camp out at the openings of other new condo complexes in the area.

Each month, as new sections of the development came under construction, roughly 50 buyers would show up at O'Brien Homes' sales office hoping to be picked for one of the 10 or so sites available. The participants were already pre-qualified for a mortgage and had their down payment in place. After being assigned a number, they crossed their fingers and waited for each bingo ball to be plucked from the tumbler.

"Some people would come back month after month," said Frimel. "It got very frustrating for them."

Adding to that frustration was that home prices rose virtually every time a new group of homes went on sale. The two-, three- and four-bedroom homes started out between $420,000 and $620,000. The last grouping went for $555,000 to $815,000, a 32% increase.

Even with the price hikes, buyers kept returning. O'Brien started issuing returnees an extra bingo ball. If they lost for four straight months, they would get five chances the next time.

Here's my Greenspan imitation: "Don't worry, it's only some sections of the country. Besides it's well supported by the fundamentals. And as we all know, home prices never drop."



Le tout alors que le PMI repasse sous les 50 :
Welcome Back Recession: Chicago PMI Implodes To 49, First Sub-50 Print Since September 2009
ZeroHedge, 30/04/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Total collapse. That is the only way to explain what just happened with the Chicago PMI which imploded from 52.4, and printed at a contractionary 49: the first sub-50 headline print since September 2009. But that's not all: Deliveries, Prices Paid and Production all hit their lowest since 2009; Backlogs posted their tenth month of contraction in the past 12 months. And what's worst for the Department of Making Shit Up, Employment plunged from 551. to 48.7, its third month over month decline. Actually another way to phrase it: complete disaster. Obviously this number explains why S&P should have no problems crossing 1,600 today. Because for that other Department: of Propaganda and Creating money out of thin air, this means only one thing: the Fed is preparing to print ONE KROOGOL MORE!

1 commentaire:

  1. Moi je comprends rien là bas, je veux bien que tout soit trafiqué, mais les 65000 Visas H1B sont partis en 5 jours (enfin il ya eu près de 114000 demandes en 5 jours). Si ça allait si mal, il n'y aurait pas autant de demande pour faire venir des mecs d'Inde...
    En plus les prix de l'immobilier remontent alors qu'il y a un stocks de biens (oui je l'accorde, y'en a c'est pas vraiment très frais)...et les loyers sont tellements élevés!!!comment se fesse?

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