mercredi 19 juin 2013

Kyle Bass : La catastrophe japonaise qui aura lieu dans les deux prochaines années va obliger le monde à revenir à plus d'orthodoxie

Kyle Bass: "The Next 18 Months Will Redefine Economic Orthodoxy For The West"
ZeroHedge, 18/06/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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"The next 18 months in Japan will redefine the economic orthodoxy of the West"

"Japan is so far off the bell-curve that no one wants to talk about it"

There are three key myths about Japan that Bass shows are simply false but remain repeated for the comfort of the cognitively biased investment community:

The current account allows the country to self-finance its deficit
The Bank of Japan is not monetizing debt
Retail investors will always support the JGB marketplace

The smartest money is leaving Japan in a hurry already - Q4 2012 was the largest M&A quarter ever for Japanese firms buying foreign entities - Western productive assets - (just as was seen in Mexico before their crisis) as they try to get out of JPY

Bass reminds us of Taleb's work on central planning: "if you suppress volatility long enough, then when the 'event' happens it is greater than the sum total of all the suppressed vol over time."

He warns - these shifts happen so fast that you will never get hedged or out of the way in time...

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