|China Interbank Market Freezes As Overnight Repo Explodes To 25%|
|ZeroHedge, 19/06/2013 (traduire en Français )|
En clair, les money markets sont gelés. Plus personne n'a de liquidité, et le peu qu'il y a, personne n'a assez confiance dans les autres banques pour les leur prêter.
Idem sur le Shibor, qui représente les taux interbancaires, sur durée un peu plus longue :
|SHIBOR Signaling Stress in the Financial System - Liquidity Crunch|
|Jesse's Café Américain, 18/06/2013 (traduire en Français )|
|Fitch says China credit bubble unprecedented in modern world history|
|The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, 16/06/2013 (traduire en Français )|
China's shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.
The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would find it very hard to grow its way out of the excesses as in past episodes, implying tougher times ahead.
"The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese-style deflation," said Charlene Chu, the agency's senior director in Beijing.
"There is no transparency in the shadow banking system, and systemic risk is rising. We have no idea who the borrowers are, who the lenders are, and what the quality of assets is, and this undermines signalling," she told The Daily Telegraph.
The ratio of credit to GDP has jumped by 75 percentage points to 200pc of GDP, compared to roughly 40 points in the US over five years leading up to the subprime bubble, or in Japan before the Nikkei bubble burst in 1990. "This is beyond anything we have ever seen before in a large economy. We don't know how this will play out. The next six months will be crucial," she said.
"There is no way they can grow out of their asset problems as they did in the past. We think this will be very different from the banking crisis in the late 1990s. With credit at 200pc of GDP, the numerator is growing twice as fast as the denominator. You can't grow out of that."
La Chine n'arrive pas à rebalancer son modèle économique vers plus de consommation. C'est même l'inverse qui se produit. La part de la consommation dans le PIB est au plus bas (chiffres de 2010) :
|China Joins The Broken "Keynesian Multiplier" Club|
|ZeroHedge, 18/06/2013 (traduire en Français )|
as the chart below shows, China now has a Keynesian multiplier problem of its own. Even as the Chinese politburo and the PBOC have been injecting an ever increasing amount of credit into the private sector - the primary source of Chinese growth - the incremental GDP growth has been trending lower, and lower, and lower...
- The good news: unlike in the US, the multiplier is not yet negative, as there still is some GDP reaction in response to every "credit impulse."
- The bad news: each successive GDP response is weaker and weaker, even as the credit injection has no choice but to be larger and larger.