lundi 29 juillet 2013

USA : gros bidouillage des chiffres de la croissance et de l'inflation en vue

Quand vous n'arrivez plus à faire de vraie croissance pour continuer d'enfumer votre petit monde, pas de problème. Appelez les statisticiens qui vous bricolent les stats de croissance et d'inflation, et demandez leur de vous bidouiller un chiffre qui sorte plus de croissance (et donc moins d'inflation).

The Government "Revises" 84 Years Of Economic History This Week
ZeroHedge, 29/07/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Don't like how high debt-to-GDP figures are? Revise 'em. Unhappy at the post-'recovery' growth rates? Revise 'em. Disappointed at the pace of economic improvement in the last decade or two compared to the rest of the world? Revise 'em. This week "we are essentially rewriting economic history" as the BEA is set to revise GDP data from as far back as 1929. The 'adjustments' to account for intangibles (that best known of micro- accounting fudge factors) and as we noted previously in great detail, will increase GDP by around $500 billion. Of course, these changes are defended aggressively (just as the hedonic adjustments to inflation calculations 'make perfect sense') as GDP will now reflect spending on research, development, and copyrights as investment - and reflect pension deficits for the first time (think of all that potential future GDP from massive pension deficits now). With Q2 GDP growth estimates set for a dismal 1.1%, expectations are for the short-term economic data to be revised upwards (and with any luck the great recession never happened at all).

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