mardi 24 septembre 2013

L'argument démographique sur le "participation rate" en chute libre de la population US

So It Wasn't Demographics After All?
ZeroHedge, 23/09/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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Last week we destroyed in detail the fallacy that the plunging participation rate in the US was related to demographics. Despite Ben Bernanke's comments during his press conference last week that demographics play a role, it seems Fed's Dudley and Lockhart have a different view - in line with ours.
  • *DUDLEY SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DECLINE `OVERSTATES' PROGRESS
  • *LOCKHART SAYS A NUMBER OF EXPLANATIONS FOR PARTICIPATION RATE (as we covered here)
  • *U.S. FED'S DUDLEY SEES 'HOLLOWING OUT' IN LABOR MARKET INCLUDING FACTORY WORKERS
  • *LOCKHART: LOWER PARTICIPATION MAY MEAN LOWER ECONOMIC POTENTIAL, WHICH IS A CONCERN

What now? Instead of demographics (the aging of America fallacy), it is a 'hollowing out' of our manufacturing base and this leads to lower economic growth potential. It seems Stockman's 'born-again jobs scam' is very real.

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