mercredi 16 octobre 2013

Dollar monnaie de réserve : une Chine au sommet de sa bulle de crédit souffle le chaud et le froid

Pour commencer ce graphique bien connu qui résume l'historique des monnaies de réserve de l'histoire :


D'un côté :
China's Official Press Agency Calls For New Reserve Currency, And New World Order
ZeroHedge, 14/10/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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We assume it is a coincidence that on the day in which we demonstrate China's relentless appetite for gold, driven by what we and many others believe is the country's desire to have a call option on a gold-backed reserve currency when the time comes, just posted in China's official press agency, Xinhua, is an op-ed by writer Liu Chang in which he decries the "US fiscal failure which warrants a de-Americanized world" and flatly states that the world should consider a new reserve currency "that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States."

Of course, if China were serious, and if the world were to voluntarily engage in such a (r)evolutionary reserve currency transition, then all Magic Money Tree theories that the only thing better than near infinite debt is beyond infinite debt, would promptly be relegated to the historic dust heap of idiotic theories where they belong.

Some of China's (which as a reminder is the single largest offshore holder of US Treasury paper, and the second largest of all only second naturally to the Federal Reserve whose $85 billion in monthly monetizing "flow" is what is keeping rates from exploding higher) thoughts as captured in the Xinhua Op-ed:
  • Reform of the world’s financial system should include the introduction of a new internatonal reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar
  • The international community could thus permanently stay away from the spillover of intensifying domestic political turmoil in the U.S.
  • Fiscal impasse in the U.S. is a good time for “befuddled world” to start considering building a “de-Americanized world
  • Impasse has left many nations’ dollar assets in jeopardy and the international community agonized
  • Other cornerstones should be laid to underpin a de-Americanized world, including respect for sovereignty, recognizing authority of UN in handling global hotspot issues and giving developing and emerging market economies more say in major international financial institutions
  • Purpose of such changes is not to “completely toss the United States aside,” rather to encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in addressing global affairs
Of course, if and when the day comes that the USD is no longer the reserve currency, kiss America's superpower, or any power, status, which is now based purely on the USD's reserve currency status, and the ability to fund half the US budget deficit with debt promptly monetized by the Fed, goodbye.



De l'autre :
Watch what China does with US debt, not what it says
The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, 15/10/2013 (traduire en Français texte en anglais )
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The latest data shows that China's foreign reserves soared by $163bn in the third quarter to $3.66 trillion, one of the biggest jumps ever.

Mark Williams and Qinwei Wang from Capital Economic called the rise "astonishing". They estimate that China's central bank must have bought $70bn of foreign bonds last month in a frantic bid to hold down the currency.

We won't know for a while where the money went, but a big chunk must have gone into US Treasuries.

For all the talk of reform, China still refuses to give up its mercantilist trade policy. It is holding down the yuan to cling onto global market share and protect the wafer-thin margin of its exporters, not always successfully.

The economic "efficiency" of debt has collapsed. Each extra yuan of loans now yields just 0.18 yuan of GDP growth. The credit cycle is played out. Debt has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion in five years, reaching 200pc of GDP. Keeping it going is playing with fire. The experts in Beijing know exactly what this implies, but they can't easily stop it. Political vested interests are at play.

1 commentaire:

  1. Sur Agoravox, on se demande si la Chine n'a pas décidé de faire un Grand Chamboulement : http://www.agoravox.fr/tribune-libre/article/la-chine-annonce-la-fin-d-un-monde-142150

    Ca rejoint mon idée : le système US repose, au final, sur le consentement des élites compradore ou des peuples spoliés par le Dollar à maintenir le système en place.
    Est-ce toutefois la fin ?
    J'attends quand même de voir pour le croire.
    Mais je file aussi chez le numismate acheter de l'or tout frais, parce qu'il est vraiment pas cher. Merci la FED.
    D'après Béchade elle relouchifie en loucedé (pour faire face à des demandes de conversion des titres ?) mais j'y vois aussi l'éventualité de faire baisser les cours pour éviter une ruée vers l'or pour cause de shutdown.

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